Fluctuations

One of the soundest rules to remember when making forecasts in the field of economics is that whatever is to happen is happening already.

— Sylvia Porter

Economics 302: Macroeconomic Analysis

Fluctuations and Business Cycles

Lansing, Kevin and Jeffrey Thalhammer. "Output and Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 99-18, May 28, 1999.
Davis, Bob. "From Economic Crises of Yore, There's Hope — and Harbingers," The Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2002.

Walsh, Carl E. "Changes in the Business Cycle," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 99-16, May 14, 1999.
Woodall, Pam. "A Necessary Evil: Should We Learn to Love Recessions?" Survey: The World Economy, The Economist, September 26, 2002. [PDF format]
Trehan, Bharat. "Why Has Output Become Less Volatile?" Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2005-24, September 16, 2005.

Wolf, Martin. "Keynes v Friedman: both can claim victory," Financial Times, November 21, 2006.
Porter, Eduardo and Jeremy W. Peters. "This Expansion Looks Familiar," New York Times, February 13, 2007.
Hayashi, Yuka, Joellen Perry, and Greg Ip. "Global Economy Shrugs Off Oil, Housing Strains," Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2007.
Gross, David. "The Forecast for the Forecasters Is Dismal," New York Times, March 4, 2007.

Business Cycle Dating Committee. "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure," National Bureau of Economic Research, October 21, 2003.
Aaronson, Daniel, Ellen Rissman, and Daniel G. Sullivan. "Assessing the Jobless Recovery," Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, vol. 28, Q2 2004, pp. 2–20.
Basu, Susanto and Alan M. Taylor. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 13, n. 2. Spring, 1999, pp. 45–68.