Fluctuations

Stylized Facts IS-LM Labor Markets AS-AD Technology

An economic forecaster is like a cross-eyed javelin thrower: they don't win many accuracy contests, but they keep the crowd's attention.

— Anonymous

Economics 302: Macroeconomic Analysis

Fluctuations and Business Cycles

Background:

Davis, Bob. "From Economic Crises of Yore, There's Hope — and Harbingers," The Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2002.
Lansing, Kevin and Jeffrey Thalhammer. "Output and Inflation: A 100-Year Perspective," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 99-18, May 28, 1999.

Analysis:

Walsh, Carl E. "Changes in the Business Cycle," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 99-16, May 14, 1999.
Woodall, Pam. "A Necessary Evil: Should We Learn to Love Recessions?" Survey: The World Economy, The Economist, September 26, 2002. [PDF format]

In The News:

Koenig, Evan F., Thomas F. Siems and Mark A. Wynne. "New Economy, New Recession?" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 2, March/April 2002.
Beattie, Alan. "Is the US economy over its shocks?" Financial Times, September 9, 2003.

Going Further:

Business Cycle Dating Committee. "The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure," National Bureau of Economic Research, October 21, 2003.
Basu, Susanto and Alan M. Taylor. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 13, n. 2. Spring, 1999, pp. 45–68.